Daily Forex Analysis - August 21, 2009

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY remains in downtrend from 97.78 and the price action from 93.67 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible later today, next target would be at 93.25 zone, and a break below 93.67 will signal resumption of downtrend. Near term resistance is at 94.55, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue. However a break above 94.55 level will suggest that a short term cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart, then further rise could be seen to 95.00 zone.

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD trades in range between 1.6275 and 1.6663. The price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.7042. Deeper decline to 1.6000 zone is still possible after consolidation. Key resistance is located at 1.6663, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.7042 has completed at 1.6275 level already.

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD consolidates in a range between 1.4045 and 1.4327. As long as 1.4327 resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and another fall towards 1.3800 zone is possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.4327 key resistance will indicate that the uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low) has resumed, then one more rise above 1.4447 could be seen.

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF stays in a trading range between 1.0562 and 1.1021. The price action in this range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.1963 (Mar 12 high), one more rise towards 1.1000 zone to complete the consolidation would more likely be seen.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD breaks below the support of the rising trend line from 1.0632 to 1.0795. Deeper decline to test 1.0795 could be seen later today. However, the price action from 1.1075 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.0632, further rise towards 1.1400 is possible after consolidation.

AUDUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, AUDUSD is in short term downtrend from 0.8477 and the rebound from 0.8155 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible to 0.7900 zone after consolidation. Key resistance is at 0.8477, only rise above this level will suggest that the uptrend from 0.7703 has resumed, then further rally could be seen to 0.8700 zone.

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Daily Forex Analysis - August 20, 2009

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD might be forming a short term cycle top at 1.6592 level on 4-hour chart. Moving lower to test 1.6275 key support is expected in a couple of days, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and suggest that the downtrend from 1.7042 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.6000 zone. Key resistance is located at 1.6663, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.7042 has completed at 1.6275 level already.

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD rebounds to as high as 1.4266 level. Further rise to test 1.4327 resistance is still possible. As long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and deeper decline to 1.3800 is still possible. However, a break above 1.4327 key resistance will indicate that the uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low) has resumed, then one more rise above 1.4447 could be seen.

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks below 1.0670 support. Range trading between 1.0562 and 1.0883 is expected in next several days. The price action from 1.0590 (June 2 low) is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.1963 (Mar 12 high), one more rise towards 1.1000 zone to complete the consolidation would more likely be seen.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD drops sharply to as low as 1.0938. Deeper decline is possible to test the support of the rising trend line from 1.0632 to 1.0795 later today. As long as the trend line support holds, we would expect the uptrend from 1.0632 to resume and further rise towards 1.1400 is possible.

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY’s downtrend extends further to as low as 93.67. As the next short term cycle bottom on 4-hour chart is nearing, consolidation in range between 93.67 and 95.28 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Near term support is now at 93.67, only fall below this level will suggest that the downtrend from 97.78 has resumed, and deeper decline could be seen to 93.25 zone.

AUDUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, AUDUSD is in short term downtrend from 0.8477 and the rebound from 0.8155 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Deeper decline is still possible to 0.7900 zone after consolidation. Key resistance is at 0.8477, only rise above this level will suggest that the uptrend from 0.7703 has resumed, then further rally could be seen to 0.8700 zone.

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