08/22/09 ~ DoDear Club

Saturday, August 22, 2009

May 20th EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD is trading @ 1.3592; yesterday High 1.3667, low 1.3537;
right now the rate is moving down from 1.3667 (it's max) with a correction of around 30%;
I see a good support @ 1.3570 area, If the rate will fail it I see a bullish movement to area 1.3720; after 1.3570 I see another support @ 1.3540;
a good strategy may be to sell around @ 1.3700, stop loss @ 1.3745, take profit @ 1.3650;
not big space for a trade...
here some support and resistance: R3 1.3866; R2 1.3736; R1 1.3675; S1 1.3545; S2 1.3476;
no need of S3 ;)

GBP/USD is trading @ 1.5481; yeasterday high was 1.5522; low 1.5324;
the bullish scenario is still on and the rate could easily go further up to check the resistance @ 1.5600, anyway I do not think this may happend today; in may opinion it is possible that today we experiment a correction probably to 1.5260 so ower than yesterday...

here some support and resistance:
R2 1.5640; R1 1.5560; S1 1.5362; S2 1.5244;

here is my plan:
I will sell 1 unit of GBP/USD @1.5480 (right now);
stop loss 1.5560;
take profit 1.5260.

have a good trading day

EUR/USD May 19th update

7:05 PM forex No comments

The rate is trading @ 1.3632; today it moved from a low @1.3537 to a high @ 1.3667;
right now I do not see any clear opportunity to trade; the rate may move up to 1.3700 and so will go to check the resistance @ 1.3720-40; or it may move down to 1.3570 or further to 1.3540; tomorrow news should not have a big impact on the rate; so to me looks much more possible it will go to 1.3720 area;
here are some support and resistance:
R1 1.3689;
R2 1.3743;
R3 1.3873;
S1 1.3559;
S2 1.3483;
S3 1.3353;

will see the overnight developement and maybe tomorrow there will be some more clear possibilty of trading, right now my trading plan is: no positions.
have a good rest

May 19th EUR/USD analysis and opportunities

7:03 PM forex No comments

Yesterday the rate moved from a min @ 1.3469 to a max @ 1.3569; it close at it's max.
early this morning there was a small correction almost 23%, so I would consider that we didn't had any since this movement up started;
right now this movement up may be seen as a 70% correction of last friday bearish movement; 1.3600 is also a good support; psycologic and because it was the max of the last retracement in friday trend.

some support and resistence: R1 1.3502; R21.3435; S1 1.3602; S3 1.3635

It seems really difficult that the rate will go further over 1.3600; once there the possibility it will fail to break it are high enough to bet on a retracement.

here is my trading plan:
I sell 2x units of EUR/USD right now @ 1.3594; stop loss @ 1.3630 (apparently tight but rappresent the event that 1.3600 will be passed);
I will by back 1x unit @1.3540;
I will buy back 1x unit @ 1.3480;
I do not see for today the possibility to go lower than 1.3420

May 18th EUR/USD trading opportunity update

7:03 PM forex No comments

The EUR/USD opened this week @ 1.3484 and went straight down to 1.3423;
after that it made a correction to 1.3473: around 23% of the last bearish movement;
I do not see a clear opportunity; it may move down to 1.3420 again and try to break it or it my go up for a correction @ 1.3559;
my trading plan is clearly changed:
I didn't open any new position so far;
I have close 3x of the 6x units I have opened last friday;
I am going to take profit every 50 pips for each unit; 1.3450(right now); 1.34 and 1.3350.
If there will an up movement before I close all my position I my consider to short a couple of unit @ 1.3550-1.3560 with a really tight stop loss, probably @ 1.3610, with a target @ 1.3430 in that case.

have a goodtrading

May 18th EUR/USD trading opportunity

7:02 PM forex No comments

On monday no big news are coming out; so if I quick look at the tecnical analysis it says that last friday after a bad news on the Euro side the rate went down from 1.3640 to 1.3520 to correct to 1.3610...that was 76.4% it went down to 1.3466 after that;

the closing price was 1.3492. I see tthe current scenario: the rate will open @ 1.3492 and will go up to 135.10 or upper to 1.3533 and than will ride down to 1.3400;
some support and resistance: R1 1.3603; R2 1.3715; 1.3898; S1 1.3420; S2 1.3349; S3 1.3166;

here is my trading plan:

I will sell 1 unit of EUR/USD at the opening if it is above 1.3460; stop loss 1.3610
I will sell 1 unit @ 1.3507 stop loss 1.3610;
I will sell 1 unit @ 1.3533; stop loss 1.3610;
I will buy back @ 1.3420 or lower: I will check the market developement.

Have a good trading day

Opportunity traders in comparison with technical and fundamental traders

6:57 PM forex No comments

What's an opportunity trader? An opportunity trader is a trader that looks at the market to determine when there is a distortion; the market is run by humans and the consequence is that it is not perfect; it is really often subject to distortions and those distortions represent the right opportunity for a trader to make some money betting on the event that the market will cross its equilibrium;

The recognized method used to analyse the markets are technical and fundamental analysis, the problem is that they both are used to try to predict future price movements...while they should be used only to analyse what happened.
Fundamental analysis is the study of the macroeconomics indicator to explain what happened in the market and to try to see in which direction the market may move.
Technical analysts says that it is impossible to properly understand the market movement from the fundamentals of that market, first because it is impossible to know everything and second because of the gap of time from when the news is made to the time the news reach most of us. So what technical analysts do is considering the price as the unique fundamental of the market.
Since the price discounts everything they try to explain what happened while looking at the price movements and from that they also try to predict the future price movements of a market.
Have you seen what happened two weeks ago on the EUR/USD rate? Briefly after some not really good news for the Euro and the news that the European central bank was going to inject 60 billion liquidity, the Euro rallied...is that what fundamental traders were expecting? Look at March 16th; there was the same announcement from the FED...what happened? The USD lost 400 pips vs the EURO; should the Euro have done the same on May 7th? Yes but it rallied for 200 and more pips...it is like 600 pips not clear from the perspective of the fundamental analysis; and what about May 14-15? Technical traders were betting on a euro rally vs the dollar, but some fundamental news determined the opposite...a big bearish movement.
What really happened is that two weeks ago on May 7th a market distortion happened and that could have been spotted with technical instrument and with fundamental analysis instrument and so there was an opportunity to make some money trying to determine with the help of fundamental and technical analysis when the market distortion may be adjusted. That was a good opportunity to make good profit.

EUR/USD in light of the German preliminary GDP

6:57 PM forex No comments

After a movement up yesterday I was expecting a correction...a good one at least of 61.8% :)
didn't happend; but happend that the french prelim GDP is down better than expectation but worse than last time (just a little bit); but the German GDP is down 3.8%, 0.8 more than expectation and 1.7 more than last time; somebody may see the bottom of the recession, what I see is that I wouldn't buy any EUR/USD in light of such a bad data, the all euro area GDP should be affected;
there are still some important data today, but if I was long I would cover my position, and this is what I am expecting...last week the rate went up a lot and fast for a total of 400 pips, now I am expecting at least 240 pips down.

my target is 1.342; also is S2 is at 1.3478 ;)
some resistance and supports: R1 1.3688; R2 1.3742; S1 1.3556; S2 1.3478; S3 1.3346

here is my trading plan:
I will sell 3 unit of EUR/USD right now is 1.3601 (I am already long from yesterday since the rate didn't move over night) stop loss 1.3688;
I will sell 2 unit more @ 1.3558 stop loss 1.36;
I will sell 1 more unit @ 1.3478 stop loss 1.35;
I will buy back @ 1.3420 only or I will take decision right before US data came out.

this is a good opportunity today.

Have a good day trading

EUR/USD after the unemployment claims data

6:56 PM forex No comments

After yesterday correction the EUR/USD rate was @ 1.3620 this morning; right before the data release it was down to 1.3533 (probably will be the min of today);
this movement may be seen as the possibility of some long position ready to cover...just in case;

the data was worst than the expectation, but somebody said: because of last week event, something occasional...not sure, maybe just a statistcal disturb;

anyway the PPI and the unemployment claims were clearly bullysh for the rate and that happend it went up to 1.3664 (probably the max of today);

tomorrow we expect some really important news from euro side and dollar side;
first in the morning the german GDP that account for almost half of all europe...it is expected to be down 3%...it was down 2.1%;
french GDP with german account 60% of all europe and later there will be also the italian one...

all the three are expected to be worse than last time; I am expecting a lot of nervosism right before the release of them; a worse than expected release may end in a violent bearish movement to 1.3420 or lower;

the morning will be completed with euro CPI release; this is expected to be better;

on US side 3 hour and half later will be released the CPI expected to be flat;

support and resistance at this point of the day: R1 1.3692; R2 1.3743; S1 1.3561; S2 1.3481

right now my expectation is that today movement will be correct before tomorrow morning probably per 61.8% @ 1.3591 to be clear;

here is my trading plan:

I will sell right now 3 unit of EUR/USD @ 1.3641; stop loss 1.3720
I will buy back one unit @ 1.3595;
I will buy back the second unit @ 1.3561;
I will leave the third unit in case of bigger bearish movement

have a good trading day :)

EUR/USD MAY 14 trade opportunity

6:55 PM forex No comments

EUR/USD right now is trading @ 1.3570; around 15 pips higher than yesterday minimum;
yesterday we had a perfect bearish day: high 1.3715; low 1.3526; at 1.3580 we had a ritracement of 61.8% @ 1.3655 to close than @ 1.3553.
In my opinion the rate is still overvalued, there is a lot of long position that is starting getting scared of it; today there will be lots of Data; If the Data about the unemployment claim will be not worse than expected I see the possibility of some long cover... that mean the rate may go down violently.
so here are some resistanse ans supports:R1 1.367; R2 1.3787; S1 1.3481; S2 1.3409; S3 1.322.

here is my trading plan of the day:
I will sell 2 unit of EUR/USD right now @ 1.3565 stop loss @ 1.3646 and I would close the position anyway if the US data will be worse than expected; I will bay back the first lot @ 1.3481 and the second @ 1.3409 at the 1st and 2nd support to be clear;

have a good trading

13/May EUR/USD opportunity update

6:55 PM forex No comments

The EUR/USD moved today from 1.3721 to 1.3569 so far;
today data are supporting a correction of the rate that last 5 days moved up over my expectation: I said 200 pips overvalued. To me looks like the rate will have a correction to 1.342

right now the EUR/USD is around 1.3592;

in my vision the first support is 1.3569; a break of it would push the rate down to:
s1 1.3533; s2 1.3453; s3 1.3323; r1 1.3685; r2 1.3779...I would say 1.3721;
here is my plan:
I will sell 1 unit right now @ 1.3592and @ 1.3650 I will sell one unit; stop loss @ 1.3690; take profit @1.3569 for the first unit and 1.3533 for the second

have a good trade ;)

EUR/USD today opportunity

6:51 PM forex No comments

Since thursday the euro has been stronger than my expetation vs the euro;
I think a "correction" of about 200 pips will happend, but when?
Yesterday after US trade balance data there was a tendence to recover vs the euro from the dollar;right now that recovery is zero; euro/usd is trading at 1.3693;
if French CPI and EU industrial production will be not better than the forecast I see an opportunity to sell EUR/USD with a target 1.3600;
if we will have also a not worse than expected data from US I think is the day where at least part of the 200 pips overvalued will be recovered...

for today I will sell 2 unit of eur/usd @ 1.37 (right now) I will buy back @ 1 unit @ 1.3600 and 1 unit @ 1.3560; stop loss @1.3740;have a good trading

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Saturday, August 22, 2009

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