Friday, August 28, 2009
eurusd 082009
Trade Notebook
Currency Pair : EUR/USD Date: Thursday, August 20, 2009
Bullish view
Elliott Wave: | Here we have a double zigzag with lots of potential to go to the upside. It would still be a wave C and should not go past the 1.60 top. | |
Classic: | The trendline that has been holding since Feb is still holding and prices bounced off indicating short term strength. | |
Comment:
Elliott Wave:
A leading diagonal could be forming, but also a start of a big move down in form of wave 3 in which I prefer the latter scenario as it counts a little better.
Classic:
A series of lower highs have been developping and we can see a downtrend forming. A break of the Feb channel at 4135 is needed for further weakness, 4335 needs to be taken out to be bullish.
Disclaimer:
All rights reserved. Anything on this letter may be distributed, copied or otherwise used if a reference to http://dodearclub.blogspot.com/ is given and the author is given credit.
This newsletter gives trade setup information for use of the author. This is not trading advise and the author shall not be responsible for trading losses if the reader decides to trade upon the information herein.
Trading, especially currency trading , can and will cause huge losses.
Trade Update - August 18, 2009
Currency Pair : EUR/USD
Status: Closed out.
EURUSD seems to be moving in 3's and is unable to break through the lower trendline.
Best is to close out now and wait for further development. Trading is dynamic and the market always changes. Best is to take profit when the market makes it available to you. When it is about to close the window of opportunity, it is best to take profit and wait for the next opportunity.Comment:
Elliott Wave:
This daily chart counts very well as a double zigzag and the bottom treendline is not allowing the price to drop outside of the channel.
Indicators (RSI & MACD):
MACD flat around the 0.00 line. Bearish if it breaks through, but could also bounce up.
Trading result:
Was short at the 61.8% (1.43) and met first target 1.41 moves stops to break even, gained 200 pips. Added to position at 4085 3 contracts short.
Closed all positions at 4076. Gained 2x224 pips and 3x9 pips= 648+27=675 pips.
Disclaimer:
All rights reserved. Anything on this letter may be distributed, copied or otherwise used if a reference to http://dodearclub.blogspot.com/ is given and the author is given credit.
This blog is used as a trading diary and gives a trade setup for use of the author for training purposes. This is not trading advise and the author shall not be responsible for trading losses if the reader decides to trade upon the information herein.
Trading, especially currency trading , can and will cause huge losses.
Dow Analysis 81209
Dow Jones Chart
Back in February I did a number of Dow Jones analysis’ where I predicted the temporary bottom of 7000, it actually went to 6500. Since then we have seen an uptrend, but very important, the uptrend cannot be counted as an impulse. It is a correction and most likely an WXY double zigzag correction.
The prediction in February was a Dow back to 9500-10000 area. That is happening as we speak, we are already at the bottom of the target area and caution is now required for a reverasal. (For a history of the analysis click the “Dow” label bottom right of this webpage.)
February Chart
Current Chart (weekly)
Comment:
Elliott Wave:
| With WXY double zigzags we are looking for equality between wave W and wave Y, that would put the dow at 10532.08 a little over the 50% fibonacci retrace from 14217 to 6460. What you can see here in the longer term is that this is counted as an expanded flat. The top of 14217 is actually a wave B. Even if counted as a wave (5), we would still have the end of wave 1) at 6460. What you cannot see on this chart is that wave (2) of supercycle degree was rather sharp. Elliott Wave guidelines say that when wave 2 is sharp wave 4 will likely be a sideways correction, a triangle of some form. That means we will be in for a long recession. |
Indicators (RSI & MACD):
| MACD is turning bullish on the weekly chart by crossing the o (zero) line, it will be interesting to see if it can stay above zero on a downturn. A cross back down will be a vey bearish sign.
|
Fundaments/News: | Fundamentals are all over the place. Optimism is at a high, giving caution to us contrarians. Best thing is that all economists are falling all over each other to say what kind of recovery this is, u, v, or w recovery. 2/3 says this is a u shaped recovery. Well, we have a “v-shaped” reversal from the 6460 low, but are no way near a recovery yet. |
Disclaimer:
All rights reserved. Anything on this letter may be distributed, copied or otherwise used if a reference to http://dodearclub.blogspot.com/ is given and the author is given credit.
This newsletter gives a trade setup for use of the author. This is not trading advise and the author shall not be responsible for trading losses if the reader decides to trade upon the information herein.
Trading, especially currency trading or trading where large leverage positions are used , can and will cause huge losses.
Trade update eurusd 081209
Trade Update
Currency Pair : EUR/USD
Currency Pair : EUR/USD
| |
Comment: | |
Elliott Wave:
| Trading is dynamic and things change. It appears to be an irregular bottom here, or better known as “expanded flat” where wave b exceeds the bottom of wave 5. The problem with this structure is that there in no real good guideline to determine where wave c is going to land. It could be anywhere. As a guideline wave c=a*1.38, but could also be a*2.0 or anything in between. Since we don’t know we need to adust our strategy for trading the 3rd wave. The entry is now changed to the bottom of wave b @ 4087. This trade is invalid above 4449. Stop would be above the top of wave c.. Targets 1.39, 1.38 and 1.37. Move stops each time a target is hit.
|
Indicators (RSI & MACD):
| RSI showing divergence between bottom of 5 and bottom of b, and between bottom of 3 and b, bullish indication.
|
Disclaimer: All rights reserved. Anything on this letter may be distributed, copied or otherwise used if a reference to http://dodearclub.blogspot.com is given and the author is given credit. This newsletter gives a trade setup for use of the author. This is not trading advise and the author shall not be responsible for trading losses if the reader decides to trade upon the information herein. Trading, especially currency trading , can and will cause huge losses. | |
analysis eurusd 080909
EURUSD Analysis
Currency Pair : EUR/USD August 9, 2009
1-hour
|
| |||||
Comment: | ||||||
Elliott Wave:
| The 4h chart is not as clear as the weekly or the hourly chart. Price was unable to penetrate the 61.8% resistance @1.46 and stalled at 1.4445 where a double top was formed. I am now waiting for confirmation in form of a 5 wave decline and 3 wave up. But the fact that in wave 5, the territory of wave 1 was violated, gives me confidence that we are dealing with a reversal. One caveat, the latest top at 1.4445 was in 3 waves, so an expanded flat could be occuring here.
| |||||
Indicators (RSI & MACD):
| MACD and RSI showing divergence and trend reversal on all timescales except yet the weekly where now the MACD is flattening and showing a sign of crossing over.
| |||||
Fundaments/News: | Fundamental news is a mess right now. Better than expected job data supposedly caused the dollar to strengthen, but more significant is that oil dropped. Also the SP500 still made gains and correlation between eurusd and eurjpy is now not gone. For the time being. | |||||
Reference Charts: | ||||||
Oil | SP500 | EURJPY | ||||
Comment: | ||||||
Oil broke down while SP500 made more gains. SP500 is at a critical level in this bear market rally and I think it will turn within th enext couple weeks for another bear run. Note how eurjpy is following the SP500 and eurusd is following oil. | ||||||
Elliott Wave Pattern Alternates: | ||||||
4 hour |
| |||||
| ||||||
The 4006 level interferred with wave I of 5 of this latest move up. The 4445 top can be counted in 3 waves, which gives us an expanded flat and thus a wave C that is currently in progress, instead of the reversal depicted above. Wave C in an expanded flat or irregulat top can retrace to the origin of wave B. It can run past it and there is really no good guideline to determine its length. But the important thing is that in this case a new top can be formed by another impuls up. That is why trading this pair short comes with significant risk and that will affect the stops. | ||||||
Trading: | ||||||
Ideal Elliott Wave Pattern: | Ideal Trading Plan: Idealy we wait for wave a or 1 to complete. Remember we are speculating on a reversal and wave a would then be labelled as wave 1. Then we wait for the retrace and the entry would be at the 61.8% retrace which is possibly around 1.43. stop would be at 4445. I am not going to trade a reversal as upward from 4445 is a fibonacci cluster and there is no real target to trade to. An alternate stop could be 4343, more risk but better R/R.
R/R: Risk is 145 pips. Targets for this trade: 3 lots targets 1.41, 1.40, 1.39. Total pips: 900 R/R= 435:900 = 1:2 | |||||
Money Management: 3 lots combined should not add up to more than 3 % of your balance taken the stoploss into account, total pips at risk is 435. | ||||||
Traders Wisdom of the Day: | ||||||
The market is the market, it is not there to get you. It gives you the opportunity to jump in at any time to make a profit. It doesn’t care if you are right or wrong. Take ownership of your trades and don’t blame the market for losses.
| ||||||
Disclaimer: All rights reserved. Anything on this letter may be distributed, copied or otherwise used if a reference to http://dodearclub.blogspot.com/ is given and the author is given credit. This newsletter gives a trade setup for use of the author. This is not trading advise and the author shall not be responsible for trading losses if the reader decides to trade upon the information herein. Trading, especially currency trading , can (and will at times) cause huge losses. | ||||||
Update GBPUSD
Update on the GBPUSD trade: Closed out all positions.
The current wave structure is not clear. We could have a wave 3 top with potential for another run up, or we could have a long term top at 1.70.
The indicators are bearish and eventhough we might get a run up, it is unlikely that this week a new top will be set. The risk has increased to hold on to this trade much longer.
result:
Entry 1.6590
TP1 @ 6850 = 260 pips
TP2 @ 6850 = 260 pips
TP3 @ 6850 = 260 pips
Total = 780 pips.
Now we wait for the next trade setup. This trade did not go exactly as planned. But because this is a wave 5 of 5, you always risk a truncation that is why I think this was handled well. Rool with the punches an take what the market gives you.
GBPUSD update
Here is an update on the GBPUSD trade from Friday.
Entry was as 6590.
I deviated from the plan and took 2 lots out at 1.6850.
Moved stop to b/e on the 3rd lot.
Profit now 520 pips. Reason is that 3rd wave is close to its extension max and the target of 1.70 was above the 1.618 extension of wave 1.
eurusd trade result
Here is the result from Thursday's trade:
All targets hit!
Entry 1.4012
First Target 1.41 = 88 pips
Second Target 1.42 =188 pips
Third Target 1.43= 288 pips
Total 564 pips.
