| Overnight news is sparse, and this pair is hanging out around 1.3950. We did have an unemployment report this morning that showed a drop of people on unemployment by 148,000, the most in 7 years. With so many people no longer employees, but rather are independent contractors, how accurate are the numbers? Further, does an independent contractor ever become unemployed, or does the size of his checks merely diminish or stop? Where does his status show up in the unemployment reports? Equities are mixed to lower this morning, and we have even uncovered some skeptics questioning the price projections of the crude oil bulls. Results of economic change are Full Story |
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EUR/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas
Overnight news is sparse, and this pair is hanging out around 1.3950. We did have an unemployment report this morning that showed a drop of people on unemployment by 148,000, the most in 7 years. With so many people no longer employees, but rather are independent contractors, how accurate are the numbers? Further, does an independent contractor ever become unemployed, or does the size of his checks merely diminish or stop? Where does his status show up in the unemployment reports? Equities are mixed to lower this morning, and we have even uncovered some skeptics questioning the price projections of the crude oil bulls. Results of economic change are delayed until the consumer reacts and the market assimilates the new information, but the doubling of crude oil prices in 2009 will take it's toll, delaying and or weakening US economic recovery. Since printing the high of 1.4338 on 06/03 the market swings have given us a couple lower lows followed by lower highs. Prefer to try the short side of this pair with appropriate stops to see if the pattern continues and takes us down to the 1.36 level.
Bias: Lower Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.3820 1.3750 1.3530 Resistance: 1.3950 1.4050 1.4140
GBP/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas
The pound had just climbed back from the previous day's sell off when some bad UK data took it's toll. In a move that makes the pulse rate of the margin clerks quicken, we dropped from about 1.64 to 1.62. Once more the pound has commenced the climb back, and is currently around 1.63. UK retail sales were down 0.6% from last month and 1.6% from last year. The public sector was a large borrower while fewer loans were made to the private sector. Is public financing now crowding out the private sector. Increased volatility after a long sustained move is often behavior topping action, but this market seems to have eyes for my stops. My preference is to scalp from the short side on strength
Bias: Neutral Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.6290 1.6150 1.5950 Resistance: 1.6390 1.6500 1.6620
USD/JPY Commentary and Trade Ideas
Since the 1st of March this pair has been stuck in a trading range between 95 and 100. We are currently trading at 96.15. The perception that the global equities market is recovering has enticed the Japanese savers to move their money to higher yielding countries. This results in periodic weakness of the yen as the money flows abroad. This market acts like it has lost it's downside energy, finding some support in the 95.70 area. Try to buy this pair in the 95.75 area, risking 100 points.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: 95.40 94.60 94.10 Resistance: 96.50 97.30 98.50
USD/CHF Commentary and Trade Ideas
Central Bank officials said they will let the franc appreciate against the Euro, and you would assume also strengthen against the dollar. We are currently trading a little above 1.08. For the last couple of weeks we have been trading in the 1,06 to 09 range. Failure to make any significant progress to the upside, above 1.10, leads me believe the SF is headed by down to 1.06, with just a hint of dollar weakness. If force to trade this pair I would be looking to sell close to the 1.09 level,
Bias: Lower Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.0780 1.0710 1.0620 Resistance: 1.0880 1.0990 1.1100
USD/CAD Commentary and Trade Ideas
The support anticipated in the 1.13 to 1.1350 level failed to contain the USD's slide on the CAD, and we are currently trading at 1.1250. Both equities and crude are a little better this am which help the loonie. The Canadian core CPI released this morning was up 0.4%, higher than the 0.1% anticipated. The weakness in this currency is more than I anticipated, so I had best regroup and see what tomarrow brings.
Bias: Neutral Bias Term: Medium Support: 111.90 111.30 1.1020 Resistance: 1.1360 1.1440 1.1560
AUD/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas
Yesterday's feeble attempt to sell down under the low of .78269, was contained and we have subsequently rallied back above .8920. It looks like this bull move has not died, but merely gone dormant. US leading indicators rose more than expected in a newly released report, but this has failed to boost the dollar. This chart still looks like there could be some move to the downside, but the market is not cooperating.
Bias: Neutral Bias Term: Medium Support: .7915 .7800 .7690 Resistance: .8040 .8220 .8350
NZD/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas
The bull has been awakened and taken the pair back up above .64 this morning. This market has sold off very little since the high of .6592 made on June 2, 2009. The inflation/commodity story has been told many times, but profit from commodities can be very elusive. Not sure what to do with this pair, so I will stay on the sidelines and look for opportunity elsewhere.
Bias: Neutral Bias Medium: Support: .6350 6240 .6090 Resistance: .6420 .6520 .6600
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