Forex News 18.06.2009
Latest forex news: - Australia's Industrial Output, New Orders To See First Gains in 9 Months, Says Westpac - RBA Sold A$1.4 in FX Market, Said Interest Rate Changes Losing Effect on Lending Costs - Yen Rises Against the USD - EUR Jumps On Increased Optimism - USD Weakens on Weak U.S. Inflation Data Full Story |
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U.S. Unemployment Claims Data to Drive USD Trading Today
The market is set to go increasingly volatile today on the publication of U.S. Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 14:00 GMT, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's speech at 13:30 GMT . In turn this economic news will help determine the strength of the Dollar versus its major currency pairs going into end of week trading. In order to take advantage of the forex market now, traders are advised to start opening their USD positions now, prior to the release of this crucial data.
USD - USD Weakens on Weak U.S. Inflation Data
The Dollar fell for a second day against most major currencies on Wednesday after lower than expected U.S. inflation data reduced speculation the Federal Reserve would raise Interest Rates in the near future. The Dollar was at ¥95.78 Wednesday, down from ¥96.62, and at $1.3955 per EUR. The Dollar was at 1.0793 Swiss Francs, down from 1.0865 Swiss Francs.
Rising equity markets and positive economic data in recent months had led to speculations the U.S recession will end soon, and the Federal Reserve will need to raise Interest Rates by the end of the year. Concerns of rising inflation have also helped fuel these speculations. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased only 0.1% in May, falling 1.3% in the past 12 months, the biggest decline in almost 60 years.
Federal Reserve Board officials may be using next week's policy statement to suppress any speculation of an upcoming Interest Rate increase. This may signal that the underling U.S economy is still weak, resulting in long term downward pressure on the Dollar. Adding to the downward pressure on the currency are concerns over the Dollar's role as a global reserve currency as the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRIC group, called for a "more diversified international monetary system” Wednesday.
With several important economic indicators to be released Thursday, including U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT, GBP Retail Sales at 8:30 GMT, and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 7:30 GMT, traders can expect a volatile trading day, and a possible continuation of the Dollar's downward trend.
EUR - EUR Jumps On Increased Optimism
The EUR strengthened against the Dollar Wednesday after the release of disappointing U.S. data. The EUR closed at $1.3947 from $1.3863, and at ¥133.68 from ¥133.98. The Pound Sterling weakened as much as 1.2% to 85.36 pence per EUR yesterday, the biggest decline since June 4, but was little changed against the USD at $1.6391 from $1.6410 Wednesday.
The Pound's drop came after a retreat in the stock market and Bank of England (BoE)) Governor Mervyn King's speech stating that Britain's banking system may need to raise more capital to finance the economic recovery amidst a unanimous vote by BoE officials to continue their asset purchasing program.
A rise in a number of U.S stocks helped drive the EUR higher versus the Dollar, improving risk appetite in general, and reducing the Dollar's demand as a safe-haven. A report showing the U.S. current account deficit narrowed in the first quarter added to optimism in the currency market.
Traders should pay attention to the release of the U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT, GBP Retail Sales at 8:30 GMT, and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 7:30 GMT, as the results will determine the direction of the EUR, GBP and CHF for the newt few days.
Yen - Yen Rises Against the USD
The Japanese currency rose against the USD Wednesday, benefiting from its safe- haven status as Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded or lowered its outlook on almost two dozen U.S banks. The Dollar was at 95.78 Yen yesterday, down from 96.62 Yen. This came one day after S&P said European banks face higher credit losses, a statement that also resulted in gains for the JPY.
As the economic outlook is still positive overall, the Yen fell against most other major currencies since the Yen is often used as a funding currency for higher yielding assets. A report showed that Japanese investors have purchased more oversees assets than they sold also added to the downward pressure on the Yen.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Rises on Improved Demand
Crude Oil for July delivery rose 48 cents to end trading at $71.51 a barrel on Wednesday. In a volatile trading day, Crude closed higher after a mixed Energy Department report showed a bigger than expected drop in Crude supplies, and an increase in gasoline demand along with higher than expected rise in inventories. Signs of improving Oil demand offset the negative side of the report. Options expiration also played a role in the rally as July options expired Wednesday.
Crude's rally over the past several months was supported by a weakening Dollar, and fears of inflation that pushed investors to buy commodities as a hedge. However, concerns of inflation in the near future subsided as the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by only 0.1%. As Crude inventories remain at very high levels, and the USD is showing signs of stability, another rally for Oil may be unlikely in the short-term.
Article Source - U.S. Unemployment Claims Data to Drive USD Trading Today
USD - USD Weakens on Weak U.S. Inflation Data
The Dollar fell for a second day against most major currencies on Wednesday after lower than expected U.S. inflation data reduced speculation the Federal Reserve would raise Interest Rates in the near future. The Dollar was at ¥95.78 Wednesday, down from ¥96.62, and at $1.3955 per EUR. The Dollar was at 1.0793 Swiss Francs, down from 1.0865 Swiss Francs.
Rising equity markets and positive economic data in recent months had led to speculations the U.S recession will end soon, and the Federal Reserve will need to raise Interest Rates by the end of the year. Concerns of rising inflation have also helped fuel these speculations. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased only 0.1% in May, falling 1.3% in the past 12 months, the biggest decline in almost 60 years.
Federal Reserve Board officials may be using next week's policy statement to suppress any speculation of an upcoming Interest Rate increase. This may signal that the underling U.S economy is still weak, resulting in long term downward pressure on the Dollar. Adding to the downward pressure on the currency are concerns over the Dollar's role as a global reserve currency as the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRIC group, called for a "more diversified international monetary system” Wednesday.
With several important economic indicators to be released Thursday, including U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT, GBP Retail Sales at 8:30 GMT, and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 7:30 GMT, traders can expect a volatile trading day, and a possible continuation of the Dollar's downward trend.
EUR - EUR Jumps On Increased Optimism
The EUR strengthened against the Dollar Wednesday after the release of disappointing U.S. data. The EUR closed at $1.3947 from $1.3863, and at ¥133.68 from ¥133.98. The Pound Sterling weakened as much as 1.2% to 85.36 pence per EUR yesterday, the biggest decline since June 4, but was little changed against the USD at $1.6391 from $1.6410 Wednesday.
The Pound's drop came after a retreat in the stock market and Bank of England (BoE)) Governor Mervyn King's speech stating that Britain's banking system may need to raise more capital to finance the economic recovery amidst a unanimous vote by BoE officials to continue their asset purchasing program.
A rise in a number of U.S stocks helped drive the EUR higher versus the Dollar, improving risk appetite in general, and reducing the Dollar's demand as a safe-haven. A report showing the U.S. current account deficit narrowed in the first quarter added to optimism in the currency market.
Traders should pay attention to the release of the U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT, GBP Retail Sales at 8:30 GMT, and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 7:30 GMT, as the results will determine the direction of the EUR, GBP and CHF for the newt few days.
Yen - Yen Rises Against the USD
The Japanese currency rose against the USD Wednesday, benefiting from its safe- haven status as Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded or lowered its outlook on almost two dozen U.S banks. The Dollar was at 95.78 Yen yesterday, down from 96.62 Yen. This came one day after S&P said European banks face higher credit losses, a statement that also resulted in gains for the JPY.
As the economic outlook is still positive overall, the Yen fell against most other major currencies since the Yen is often used as a funding currency for higher yielding assets. A report showed that Japanese investors have purchased more oversees assets than they sold also added to the downward pressure on the Yen.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Rises on Improved Demand
Crude Oil for July delivery rose 48 cents to end trading at $71.51 a barrel on Wednesday. In a volatile trading day, Crude closed higher after a mixed Energy Department report showed a bigger than expected drop in Crude supplies, and an increase in gasoline demand along with higher than expected rise in inventories. Signs of improving Oil demand offset the negative side of the report. Options expiration also played a role in the rally as July options expired Wednesday.
Crude's rally over the past several months was supported by a weakening Dollar, and fears of inflation that pushed investors to buy commodities as a hedge. However, concerns of inflation in the near future subsided as the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by only 0.1%. As Crude inventories remain at very high levels, and the USD is showing signs of stability, another rally for Oil may be unlikely in the short-term.
Article Source - U.S. Unemployment Claims Data to Drive USD Trading Today
Swiss Franc Volatility Likely As Central Bank Responds Deflation Threat (Euro Open)
The Swiss Franc may see heavy volatility in European trading hours as the central bank weighs up an increasingly credible deflationary threat. While changes to benchmark interest rates look remote, an expansion of unconventional measures that already include quantitative easing and forex market intervention seem plausible.
Key Overnight Developments
• Australia's Industrial Output, New Orders To See First Gains in 9 Months, Says Westpac
• RBA Sold A$1.4 in FX Market, Said Interest Rate Changes Losing Effect on Lending Costs
Critical Levels
The Euro traded sideways in the overnight session, consolidating in a well-defined 40-pip band above 1.3930. The British Pound followed suit, oscillating around the 1.64 level.
Asia Session Highlights
Australia’s Westpac/ACCI Industrial Trends Survey saw an index of firms’ expectations rise to 47.6 in the second quarter, the highest since the three months to September 2008. Notably, sub-indices tracking output and new orders expectations swung back into positive territory for the first time in 9 months, suggesting manufacturers are expecting a bit of a rebound in demand in the months ahead. That said, employment expectations remained negative (albeit less so than in the previous two quarters), hinting at firms’ intention to continue to operate with slimmer labor forces and casting doubt on whether the apparent stabilization in industrial activity will meaningfully contribute to lifting the economy out of recession.
Separately, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that the central bank sold A$1.4 billion of the local currency in the spot forex market in April, the most in five years. The same month saw the Australian dollar gain a whopping 6.4% against a trade-weighted basket of top currencies, suggesting the bank is actively working to counteract upward pressure on the Aussie from a rebound in risky assets over the past three months. Indeed, the RBA’s currency sales have surged by A$1.2 since March when stock markets found a bottom and began to reverse course higher. A stronger currency threatens the export sector, making Australian goods comparatively more expensive for overseas buyers. Perhaps most notably, the RBA said that the influence of changes in benchmark interest rates on bank lending rates has weakened over the past two years, suggesting monetary policy is losing potency in stimulating economic activity. On balance, this suggests deeper cuts than what has already been undertaken may be needed to bolster the economy in the months ahead. Minutes from the last policy meeting confirmed that Glenn Stevens and company are leaving the door open for additional easing.
Euro Session: What to Expect
The monetary policy announcement from the Swiss National Bank tops the economic calendar in European hours with volatility likely as the central bank weighs up an increasingly credible deflationary threat. The last policy meeting saw the SNB announce one of the most aggressively dovish monetary policies among top global economies, sending the Franc tumbling with promises of quantitative easing and currency market intervention in an effort to keep price growth from settling in negative territory. Since then, the annual pace of consumer price growth has dropped to a record-low -1.0% and appears likely to extend losses after Producer Prices fell by the most in over two decades, hinting at shrinking price tags on final goods as firms pass on lower input costs. Indeed, yesterday saw SECO revised lower the government’s official CPI estimate to -0.5% in 2009, down from the -0.2% forecast reported in March. Although overnight index swaps reveal that traders are pricing in virtually no chance of a change in benchmark interest rates, an expansion of unconventional policies seems likely. However, it is uncertain what such actions could practically look like considering the SNB is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink behind its monetary efforts, adding to the likelihood of erratic price action as the announcement hits the tape.
UK Retail Sales are expected to shrink -0.4% in the year to May, the first decline since February. Receipts have trended lower since May of last year, with the forthcoming result extending falling firmly within the outlines of the overall trajectory. Although consumer confidence rose for a second consecutive time last month following a recovery in stock prices as well as signs of moderating turmoil in the housing market, rising unemployment is set to undermine retail activity going forward, trimming disposable incomes and weighing on spending for those already out of work and encouraging cautionary saving for those still holding on jobs. The latest labor-market data revealed the claimant count rose to 4.8%, the highest in over 11 years, despite a smaller-than-expected gain in jobless claims. Indeed, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg expects the jobless rate will average 8.2% this year and 10.2% in 2010, suggesting month-to-month volatility in claims figures is hardly reason enough to be optimistic about Britons’ job prospects in the foreseeable future.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Swiss Franc Volatility Likely As Central Bank Responds Deflation Threat (Euro Open)
Key Overnight Developments
• Australia's Industrial Output, New Orders To See First Gains in 9 Months, Says Westpac
• RBA Sold A$1.4 in FX Market, Said Interest Rate Changes Losing Effect on Lending Costs
Critical Levels
The Euro traded sideways in the overnight session, consolidating in a well-defined 40-pip band above 1.3930. The British Pound followed suit, oscillating around the 1.64 level.
Asia Session Highlights
Australia’s Westpac/ACCI Industrial Trends Survey saw an index of firms’ expectations rise to 47.6 in the second quarter, the highest since the three months to September 2008. Notably, sub-indices tracking output and new orders expectations swung back into positive territory for the first time in 9 months, suggesting manufacturers are expecting a bit of a rebound in demand in the months ahead. That said, employment expectations remained negative (albeit less so than in the previous two quarters), hinting at firms’ intention to continue to operate with slimmer labor forces and casting doubt on whether the apparent stabilization in industrial activity will meaningfully contribute to lifting the economy out of recession.
Separately, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that the central bank sold A$1.4 billion of the local currency in the spot forex market in April, the most in five years. The same month saw the Australian dollar gain a whopping 6.4% against a trade-weighted basket of top currencies, suggesting the bank is actively working to counteract upward pressure on the Aussie from a rebound in risky assets over the past three months. Indeed, the RBA’s currency sales have surged by A$1.2 since March when stock markets found a bottom and began to reverse course higher. A stronger currency threatens the export sector, making Australian goods comparatively more expensive for overseas buyers. Perhaps most notably, the RBA said that the influence of changes in benchmark interest rates on bank lending rates has weakened over the past two years, suggesting monetary policy is losing potency in stimulating economic activity. On balance, this suggests deeper cuts than what has already been undertaken may be needed to bolster the economy in the months ahead. Minutes from the last policy meeting confirmed that Glenn Stevens and company are leaving the door open for additional easing.
Euro Session: What to Expect
The monetary policy announcement from the Swiss National Bank tops the economic calendar in European hours with volatility likely as the central bank weighs up an increasingly credible deflationary threat. The last policy meeting saw the SNB announce one of the most aggressively dovish monetary policies among top global economies, sending the Franc tumbling with promises of quantitative easing and currency market intervention in an effort to keep price growth from settling in negative territory. Since then, the annual pace of consumer price growth has dropped to a record-low -1.0% and appears likely to extend losses after Producer Prices fell by the most in over two decades, hinting at shrinking price tags on final goods as firms pass on lower input costs. Indeed, yesterday saw SECO revised lower the government’s official CPI estimate to -0.5% in 2009, down from the -0.2% forecast reported in March. Although overnight index swaps reveal that traders are pricing in virtually no chance of a change in benchmark interest rates, an expansion of unconventional policies seems likely. However, it is uncertain what such actions could practically look like considering the SNB is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink behind its monetary efforts, adding to the likelihood of erratic price action as the announcement hits the tape.
UK Retail Sales are expected to shrink -0.4% in the year to May, the first decline since February. Receipts have trended lower since May of last year, with the forthcoming result extending falling firmly within the outlines of the overall trajectory. Although consumer confidence rose for a second consecutive time last month following a recovery in stock prices as well as signs of moderating turmoil in the housing market, rising unemployment is set to undermine retail activity going forward, trimming disposable incomes and weighing on spending for those already out of work and encouraging cautionary saving for those still holding on jobs. The latest labor-market data revealed the claimant count rose to 4.8%, the highest in over 11 years, despite a smaller-than-expected gain in jobless claims. Indeed, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg expects the jobless rate will average 8.2% this year and 10.2% in 2010, suggesting month-to-month volatility in claims figures is hardly reason enough to be optimistic about Britons’ job prospects in the foreseeable future.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Swiss Franc Volatility Likely As Central Bank Responds Deflation Threat (Euro Open)
6.17.2009
British Pound May Dominate Today's Market
As the USD shows unclear signals about where it is heading, and the EUR appears to be following the lead of the greenback, the market's primary currencies seem to be confusing the bulk of forex traders. On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strong signs of life and Britain is scheduled to release significant economic data today which may cause the GBP to be the main subject of today's trading.
USD - USD Erratic from Mixed Signals
The USD dropped against most of its major currency rivals yesterday, pressured by Russian angling for a new global reserve currency. By yesterday's close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3835. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6402.
Concerns that the pace of economic recovery may be more tepid than initially thought forced a retreat in a broad equity advance in the United States. While U.S. housing starts in May rebounded and producer prices rose less than expected, suggesting inflation pressures were muted. But not all investors were convinced that the economy is on a path to recovery, and global stocks turned lower as the strong rise in U.S. housing starts was outweighed by a slide in industrial production.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the Core CPI at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to increase from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at 13:00 GMT. This speech is very important as it is very likely to impact the Dollar's volatility. This may set the pace for the Dollar going into the rest of the week.
EUR - EUR Rises on Positive Economic Data
The EUR experienced a bullish day of trading yesterday against the USD, mainly due to the German ZEW economic expectation figure. The ZEW indicator jumped to 44.8 in June from 31.1 in May. This suggests that analysts and investors were not as grim about the economy as before. In other words, the improvement in this consumer sentiment signals that the worries about a further aggravation of the economic recession may be limited by the end of the year. The reading is now firmly in positive territory, which indicates that optimists far outnumber pessimists.
Since the release of this important figure earlier yesterday the EUR has climbed against the USD, and continued during today's trading session and closed at 1.3835, as trader confidence returned back to the EUR. A strong EUR may continue in the coming days if the European economy continues to release better-than-expected economic figures. If this does occur, the confidence of investors may continue to return back to the EUR in the short-term.
Looking ahead to today, the Euro-Zone and Britain are set to publish a number of important data releases. These include the British Claimant Count Change at 8:30 GMT and the Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 9:00 GMT. These figures are likely to determine the GBP and EUR's strength going into end-of-week trading. Forex traders are also advised to closely follow the speech coming from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, as the forex market is likely to be very volatile while he speaks.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies
The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the other major currencies. The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the EUR yesterday and closed its trading session at around the 133.50 level. The JPY also saw bullishness against the USD and closed at 96.50.
The Yen rose and stocks slumped the most in more than two months on concern a global recovery may be delayed. While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said earlier that the nation's worst post-war recession is easing, BOJ Governor Shirakawa said that the economy is improving because of three temporary factors: replacement of stockpiles at home and abroad, global fiscal stimulus measures, and improving confidence. It's unclear whether a recovery in demand will take hold.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Prices Stable near $70
Oil fell during yesterday's trading session and closed around $70.60; giving back early gains as worries about the ailing world economy persist.
Oil prices have risen steadily during the past two months, going above $70 a barrel and causing concern that high energy costs could slow the economic recovery from recession. Slowing production has contributed to the price increase, but weakness in the U.S. dollar may be the main cause.
As for today, traders should pay attention to the U.S Crude Oil Inventories report scheduled, as it tends to have a large impact on Crude Oil's prices recently, especially for the short-term.
Article Source - British Pound May Dominate Today's Market
USD - USD Erratic from Mixed Signals
The USD dropped against most of its major currency rivals yesterday, pressured by Russian angling for a new global reserve currency. By yesterday's close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3835. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6402.
Concerns that the pace of economic recovery may be more tepid than initially thought forced a retreat in a broad equity advance in the United States. While U.S. housing starts in May rebounded and producer prices rose less than expected, suggesting inflation pressures were muted. But not all investors were convinced that the economy is on a path to recovery, and global stocks turned lower as the strong rise in U.S. housing starts was outweighed by a slide in industrial production.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the Core CPI at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to increase from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at 13:00 GMT. This speech is very important as it is very likely to impact the Dollar's volatility. This may set the pace for the Dollar going into the rest of the week.
EUR - EUR Rises on Positive Economic Data
The EUR experienced a bullish day of trading yesterday against the USD, mainly due to the German ZEW economic expectation figure. The ZEW indicator jumped to 44.8 in June from 31.1 in May. This suggests that analysts and investors were not as grim about the economy as before. In other words, the improvement in this consumer sentiment signals that the worries about a further aggravation of the economic recession may be limited by the end of the year. The reading is now firmly in positive territory, which indicates that optimists far outnumber pessimists.
Since the release of this important figure earlier yesterday the EUR has climbed against the USD, and continued during today's trading session and closed at 1.3835, as trader confidence returned back to the EUR. A strong EUR may continue in the coming days if the European economy continues to release better-than-expected economic figures. If this does occur, the confidence of investors may continue to return back to the EUR in the short-term.
Looking ahead to today, the Euro-Zone and Britain are set to publish a number of important data releases. These include the British Claimant Count Change at 8:30 GMT and the Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 9:00 GMT. These figures are likely to determine the GBP and EUR's strength going into end-of-week trading. Forex traders are also advised to closely follow the speech coming from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, as the forex market is likely to be very volatile while he speaks.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies
The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the other major currencies. The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the EUR yesterday and closed its trading session at around the 133.50 level. The JPY also saw bullishness against the USD and closed at 96.50.
The Yen rose and stocks slumped the most in more than two months on concern a global recovery may be delayed. While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said earlier that the nation's worst post-war recession is easing, BOJ Governor Shirakawa said that the economy is improving because of three temporary factors: replacement of stockpiles at home and abroad, global fiscal stimulus measures, and improving confidence. It's unclear whether a recovery in demand will take hold.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Prices Stable near $70
Oil fell during yesterday's trading session and closed around $70.60; giving back early gains as worries about the ailing world economy persist.
Oil prices have risen steadily during the past two months, going above $70 a barrel and causing concern that high energy costs could slow the economic recovery from recession. Slowing production has contributed to the price increase, but weakness in the U.S. dollar may be the main cause.
As for today, traders should pay attention to the U.S Crude Oil Inventories report scheduled, as it tends to have a large impact on Crude Oil's prices recently, especially for the short-term.
Article Source - British Pound May Dominate Today's Market
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