Forex News and Events:Forex News and Events:

The dollar rose against major currencies yesterday after bleak U.S. jobs data renewed concerns about the economy and enhanced the greenback's safe-haven appeal. The Euro was down 1.1 percent at $1.4002, retreating from $1.4201 hit on Wednesday, its highest level since early June. Adding to pressure on the Euro were comments from the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that Euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year. The dollar slipped 0.8 percent against Yen to 95.85, after trading as high as 96.89 yen before the jobs report. The Swiss franc hit the day's low of 1.5257 per euro from around 1.52 after a Swiss National Bank official said the central bank was prepared to continue interventions to stem the domestic currency's strength. Volume was light ahead of the three-day weekend for the Independence Day holiday in the United States. Overnight the dollar held gains made in the wake of bleaker than expected U.S. jobs numbers, hovering near its highest levels in a week against the Euro on Friday and pressuring commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. U.S. Treasury bonds rose while stocks fell more than 2 percent after a government report showed U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent. The Euro also extended losses against the yen, dropping 0.4 percent to 133.82 yen, after falling nearly 2 percent on Thursday The dollar edged down against the yen to 95.82 yen although it remained well within a range of 93.50-100 which has limited it since mid-April. The Australian dollar was also trading around its lowest levels in a week, at $0.7925, now a long way off an eight-month high of $0.8265 set in early June. It fell more than 2 percent against the yen on Thursday and dipped to 75.78 Yen on Friday, also its lowest level in a week. We’re also testing important support levels on stocks with S&P trend line support coming in at 888 (which is also the 200 DMA). A break would lead lower for 859. Same configuration for the DAX, where trend line support comes in at 4669, below 4579 is the next level. Financial markets will be closed on Friday and will reopen on Monday.

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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

09:30 GBP PMI Services JUN 51.5 vs. 51.7
09:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) JUN Prev. $2121M
09:30 GBP BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal 1Q -£9.0B vs. -£8.0B
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) MAY -0.10% vs. 0.20%

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The Risk Today:

EurUsd EUR/USD remains in its 1.3940 to 1.4200 range but the dip below 1.3980 suggests profit taking has started. On a US holiday with intraday momentum now reading oversold, hopes for follow through today aren’t high but into next week and throughout the rest of the month the risk is that the parameters of the wider 1.37 to 1.42 range are tested.

GbpUsd GBPUSD is still range trading within 1.6270 to 1.6600 but bigger picture the evidence for an unfolding top is becoming compelling and we are increasingly looking for reason to sell as from next week.

UsdJpy A break of trendline support at 95.25 is needed to hint at a more important downside potential and a test of the key 93.85/30 support zone.

UsdChf USD/CHF is locked between trendlines at 1.0630 and 1.1020 but for which investors show low enthusiasm so far.

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Resistance and Support:

EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF
1.4270	1.6620	98.30	1.0990
1.4205	1.6650	97.90	1.0960
1.4130	1.6505	97.00	1.0935
1.4010	1.6360	95.02	1.0860
1.3920	1.6320	95.30	1.0705
1.3885	1.6280	94.80	1.0635
1.3830	1.6230	95.40	1.0590
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

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Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session: NFP’s disappoint as ECB stays put on rates – low volumes today for 4th July holiday. July 03, 2009 11:23 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD NZD 0.591 AUD 0.494 CAD 0.388 JPY 0.103 DKK -0.091 EUR -0.098 CHF -0.178 NOK -0.270 GBP -0.272 SEK -0.699 Global Indexes Current Level % Change Nikkei 225 Index 9816 - 0.61 Hang Seng Index 18203 + 0.14 Shanghai Index 3088 + 0.92 FTSE 100 Index 4236 + 0.06 DAX Index 4718 - 0.28 DJIA futures 8251 + 0.12 Nasdaq futures 1445 0.00 World Markets Current Level % Change Gold 9331.88 + 0.23 Silver 13.415 + 0.15 VIX 27.95 + 6.60 Crude wti 66.41 - 0.48 USD Index 80.307 + 0.20 Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT -

Currency Tech AUDUSD R 3: 0.8375 R 2: 0.8263 R 1: 0.8150 CURRENT: 0.7990 S 1: 0.7985 S 2: 0.7930 S 3: 0.7900 EURJPY R 3: 139.20 R 2: 138.33 R 1: 136.46 CURRENT: 134.25 S 1: 134.00 S 2: 133.61 S 3: 131.41 USDSGD R 3: 1.4800 R 2: 1.4748 R 1: 1.4649 CURRENT: 1.4515 S 1: 1.4454 S 2: 1.4385 S 3: 1.4334 Market Brief NFP’s disappoint by showing a -467K decline in payrolls, 100K more than the consensus. This underlines the vast layoffs from the GM and Chrysler debacle and the continuing difficulty to revive the economy. The EURUSD dropped from it’s high 1.41’s as low as 1.3930 before rebounding. While the pair broke it’s range momentarily only a healthy breakout below the 1.3900 support will prove sufficient for a substantial move. The ECB kept rates at 1.00% followed by an uninspiring press conference by Trichet. No comments on whether the rates would fall further but it was clear that no hikes would come before 2010. Volumes will inevitably be low today as the U.S is off for a pre-4th July holiday. We expect currencies to stay in tight ranges but large funds, sovereign or private entering the markets could provide large moves.

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Mideast tourist numbers drop in Jan-Apr 2009

DUBAI: The UAE has seen a growth in tourist numbers during the first four months of this year, despite the Middle East seeing the largest fall of tourists in any region, the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) said yesterday. UAE bucked the regional trend with tourist growth of three percent, The National daily reported. According to the preliminary figures from the UNWTO’s World Tourism Barometer, the Middle East region saw tourism decline by 18 percent between January and April compared with the same period last year However, international tourism declined globally by eight percent. “The Middle East is cooling down from a number of years of very fast growth,” The National quoted John Kester, the chief of market trends, competitiveness and trade in tourism services at the UNWTO, as saying. The report noted that the chief reason for the decline in the region’s tourists’ numbers was the drop in tourist numbers into Saudi Arabia. Destinations worldwide recorded a total of 247 million international tourist arrivals in the first four months of this year, down from 269 million last year, the report said. Tourist arrivals to Europe were down 10 per cent in the first four months of the year, the Americas were down five percent, and the Asia/Pacific region was down six percent. Africa, meanwhile, saw tourism increase by three percent. Destinations worldwide recorded a total of 247 million international tourist arrivals in those four months, down from 269 million in 2008. Given the changes in the outlook UNWTO has revised its forecast for the full year 2009. Taking account of the results for the first four months of the year and the current market conditions, international tourism is now forecast to decrease by between (negative) six percent and (negative) four percent in 2009, as the pace of decline is expected to ease during the remainder of 2009.

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